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Wednesday, 12 May 2010
Thoughts on the election
So we have a Conservative government. Big surprise. I don't quite understand why anyone expected Labour to hold onto a fourth term of power, particularly since the Conservatives had such a popular (well, not among my age group, but certainly more so than any other in recent years) leader.
However, from where I'm sitting it appears that every party - even the small ones - will win from this election. The Liberal Democrats get the closest they've ever come to power with five MPs in David Cameron's cabinet, allowing them to rebuff voters who dismiss them as "inexperienced" and introduce an alternative voting system that is less biased against smaller parties like themselves. This in turn should aid fringe parties such as the Green Party, who achieved their first ever seat last week, as well as (whisper it) the BNP.
Conservatives are the biggest losers of the election. Though finally back in power, will have to cope with an underpowered majority, as well as having to concede some of their power to the Liberal Democrats. With the economy still in a very fragile condition, they'll be forced to make some necessary but extremely unpopular decisions.
Labour, meanwhile, have a chance to regroup and start anew - form a New New Labour or whatever - and next election can capitalise on the necessary but extremely unpopular policies the Conservatives (and Lib Dems) will have made.
But all this is speculation. It's just as likely the coalition will collapse after seven months like the last one did and Britain as we know it will disappear under a sea of hysteria.
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Slight correction - the 1974 government that collapsed was a minority government, not a coalition - so naturally less stable. We haven't had an actual coalition government since the second world war. I think this one could last quite a while, especially if they bring in fixed terms for parliament.
ReplyDeleteThe rest of what you said sounds like pretty reasonable speculation to me though, although I worry that the AV electoral system is a bit of a half-arsed step towards proportionality that will make it impossible for the Lib Dems to get the system they actually want, STV, for many years. Still, it's better than nothing and it's the best we'll get. So let's just see how it goes...